Document Type

Article

Version

Author's Final Manuscript

Publication Title

Terrorism and Political Violence

Publication Date

2025

Abstract

The relation between belief and behavior in radicalization to terrorism has been a continuing issue in terrorism research. Peels (2025) has advanced several reasons for thinking that the relation may be stronger than suggested by McCauley and Moskalenko (2017). In this response, we engage with his arguments and, in doing so, come to three questions. First, how does the difference between prediction and explanation account for the small observed correlations between extreme belief and extreme action? Second, if the definitions of extreme belief and extreme action are expanded as Peels suggests, how will this resolve the low-baserate problem that arises when using all-too-common beliefs to predict rare actions? Third, we agree with Peels that politically active groups are likely to be acting on their beliefs, but wonder how such groups are to be identified and what kind of intervention can reach into such groups? In a concluding section, we describe two mechanisms encouraging beliefs consistent with action, and three mechanisms encouraging actions consistent with belief. The latter are weak, as the correlation between extreme belief and extreme action is weak.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2580999

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